INDIA’S NAVAL MODERNIZATION AND EVOLVING NUCLEAR POSTURE: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH ASIAN STABILITY

Abstract

India’s strategic trajectory since 2014 reflects a deliberate convergence of naval modernization and nuclear posture, reshaping the security environment of South Asia. The expansion of aircraft carrier groups, nuclear-powered submarines, and sea-based ballistic missile systems illustrates India’s determination to transform into a blue-water power with assured second-strike capability. Simultaneously, debates over the credibility of its “No First Use” pledge and a discernible shift toward counterforce tendencies highlight the doctrinal recalibration underpinning its evolving nuclear policy. Together, these parallel developments constitute a maritime–nuclear nexus that strengthens India’s deterrence credibility while exacerbating regional insecurities. This article examines the interconnected dimensions of India’s naval modernization and nuclear posture, focusing on their implications for Pakistan’s deterrence calculus, regional arms race dynamics, and the risks of crisis instability in the Indian Ocean. It argues that while sea-based deterrence enhances survivability and theoretically contributes to stability, it simultaneously introduces command-and-control vulnerabilities, heightens the possibility of inadvertent escalation, and accelerates an action–reaction cycle in South Asia. Pakistan’s asymmetric responses, including submarine-launched cruise missiles and Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) strategies, underscore the competitive spiral unleashed by India’s dual-track modernization. The paper concludes that India’s naval–nuclear trajectory presents a dual-edged reality: it strengthens New Delhi’s power projection in the Indo-Pacific while undermining deterrence stability in South Asia. To mitigate destabilizing outcomes, the study recommends asymmetric adaptation for Pakistan, confidence-building and nuclear risk-reduction measures, and the establishment of regional maritime security frameworks. Without such mechanisms, the Indian Ocean risks becoming a flashpoint of instability rather than a stabilizing pillar of the Asian security order.

Keywords:   India; Naval Modernization; Nuclear Posture; South Asia; Deterrence Stability; Pakistan; Indian Ocean; Sea-based Deterrence; Arms Race; Indo-Pacific Strategy