Climate Change, Water Security, and Geopolitics in South Asia: Implications for Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change is rapidly transforming the hydrological landscape of South Asia, intensifying existing water insecurities and reshaping regional geopolitical dynamics. This article examines the intersection of climate change, water security, and geopolitics in South Asia, with a particular focus on Pakistan. It argues that climate-induced variability in water availability is emerging as a critical factor influencing interstate relations, especially between Pakistan and India. Drawing on the concept of hydro-politics and the framework of climate security, the study analyzes how changing river flows, glacial retreat, and extreme weather events are placing stress on transboundary water arrangements, particularly the Indus Basin system. The article evaluates the role and limitations of the Indus Waters Treaty in the context of climate change. It also explores the potential for both conflict and cooperation. It further assesses Pakistan’s strategic vulnerabilities, including its heavy dependence on the Indus River system, weak water governance, and limited adaptive capacity. The study concludes that while climate change exacerbates geopolitical tensions, it also creates opportunities for regional cooperation, provided that institutional mechanisms are strengthened and depoliticized. The article contributes to the broader discourse on climate security by highlighting the centrality of water in shaping future geopolitical alignments in South Asia.

Keywords: Climate change, water security, hydro-politics, South Asia, Pakistan, Indus Basin, geopolitics