Regional Rivalries and Nuclear Risk in South Asia: Deterrence, Strategic Stability, and the China–India–Pakistan Triangle

Abstract

Nuclear politics in South Asia represent one of the most complex and unstable regional security environments in the contemporary international system. Despite the presence of nuclear deterrence, the region continues to experience recurring crises, persistent conventional tensions, and evolving nuclear doctrines, particularly between India and Pakistan. This study examines how regional rivalries and external power competition shape nuclear behavior, strategic stability, and escalation risks in South Asia. Moving beyond a narrow bilateral focus, the analysis situates the India–Pakistan rivalry within the broader China–India–Pakistan nuclear triangle, highlighting how overlapping threat perceptions and interdependent deterrence relationships complicate crisis management. Adopting a qualitative research design, the study relies on thematic analysis of secondary sources, including peer-reviewed academic literature, policy documents, and strategic assessments related to South Asian nuclear dynamics. The findings suggest that nuclear deterrence in South Asia has not produced enduring stability but has instead coexisted with risk-taking behavior, doctrinal ambiguity, and technological modernization that collectively heighten escalation risks. The involvement of external powers, particularly through strategic alignments and great-power competition, further intensifies regional security dilemmas and undermines crisis stability. The study contributes to the literature by framing South Asian nuclear politics as a regional security subsystem shaped by interconnected rivalries rather than isolated dyadic relationships. By emphasizing the systemic interaction among regional and extra-regional actors, the research offers a more comprehensive understanding of nuclear risk and strategic stability in South Asia and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to risk reduction and crisis management.

Keywords: Regional Rivalries, Nuclear Risk, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, China–India–Pakistan, South Asia.